30 Comments
Sep 14, 2022Liked by Punch Card Investor

Thank you for the writeup and for sharing it with all of us. Love following through your thought process and really appreciate the detailed analysis.

My channel checks (primarily friends who are merchants in the various platforms in Indonesia) are telling me that Tiktok Shop is gaining significant momentum in Indonesia and encroaching Shopee's territory with short form videos being a channel that has/is continuing to grow rapidly and also arguably a suitable and attractive one especially in the categories that Shopee excels in (fashion, beauty, etc). Curious if you've given any thought on this?

Would also love to look at the model if you can share it. Email is clinton.rezeki@gmail.com

Thank you again. Really appreciate it.

Expand full comment
Jul 12, 2022Liked by Punch Card Investor

Wow, this is such a beautiful, great, deep, and insightful piece of analysis work. Thank you so much for posting this. I've learnt so much from you. Would it be possible to share your valuation model at chaiyapat.song@gmail.com? Thank you again.

Expand full comment
Jan 28, 2022Liked by Punch Card Investor

Thank you for this detailed deep dive. Extremely helpful! I am with you on the Garena and Shopee assessment, but have my skepticism on the Sea money business.

In general, I find that in markets esp. in EMs where banks also have pretty decent wallet or similar offerings, it is tough for tech players to gain a significant share without offering promotions - A good example may be PayTM in India - It may be controversial a comment but I really don't find their business model sustainable if they were to stop offering all the promotions and cash back. Similarly, for digital bank to gain scale - its a big question too! I think the capital arbitrage between banks and digital banks will be closed over time through regulations and I simply find it hard to have faith in tech companies (using balance sheet capital to lend) to survive lending cycles. Time will tell I guess.

But thank you again for this great write up! As well as the scenario assessment.

One suggestion - Since you have looked into the market dynamics already, perhaps take a look at GRAB too? Esp. after the de-spac, stock has come off to more realistic valuations and may be an interesting super app to study :)

Expand full comment
Dec 23, 2021Liked by Punch Card Investor

Hi, I learn so much from reading your posts about Sea - Thank you so much. Would you be open to sharing your valuation model at samalex5925@gmail.com? Am a student and think I could learn a lot from the model.

Expand full comment
Dec 15, 2021Liked by Punch Card Investor

This is really good work. TYSM. I think one part that I'm curious to hear your thoughts on is the competitive intensity in Indonesia. Tokopedia recently overtook Shopee on market share -- albeit with heavy discounting. Arguably this is hurting Shopee's business in Indo, which is the biggest pie as far as Shopee's markets are concerned. What gives you confidence that Shopee will make money in Indonesia?

Expand full comment
Dec 8, 2021Liked by Punch Card Investor

Thank you for sharing such a detailed and comprehensive analysis on Sea. Before my long position in Sea, I was a bit doubt on my though and analysis and now I have conviction in holding this stock after reading your analysis, though the stock price dropped dramatically recently, without any bad news going out. Looking forward you could write more analysis on other stocks as well.

Expand full comment

regarding compensation part, please check 144 forms and I am sure you will find something really interesting...and can give you a better idea about its corporate governance

Expand full comment

Thank you for this deep dive, it's really great work. Very nice to find such detailed analysis on a company that likes to operate stealthily. I'm a reporter at Bloomberg and would love to chat more if you're open, feel free to drop me an email at opoh@bloomberg.net.

Expand full comment

Hi, thanks for the amazing set of write-ups on SE! I was wondering if you would be open to sharing your model. My email is neilnorris377@gmail.com. I was also wondering if you had any thoughts on the recent decline in price since you wrote these. Have you added to your position? Do you think the theses are largely intact?

Expand full comment

Se has dropped more than 40% compared to highest price 370...will you invest more in se in this moment?

Expand full comment